[Cable Network News] The main Shanghai copper contract closed higher last week, while the LME copper rose slightly. LME copper inventory was 252,225 tons, a decrease of 2,025 tons compared to last week; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's copper inventory decreased by 13,112 tons to 69,278 tons; Shanghai Free Trade Zone warehouse was 301,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons. The macro bearish weakening, and the short-term fluctuation of copper prices under low inventories, the trend of rebound, pay attention to the pressure on the upper edge of the range.
At the macro level, the Fed’s interest rate decision in September is approaching, and the market’s expectations for the Fed’s taper have increased. However, the dollar’s sharp rise in August may have also released this expected impact to a certain extent. On the other hand, the Biden administration’s approach to new energy The impact of infrastructure planning and implementation on the future trend of copper prices may be even more important.
On the supply side, the current TC price of imported mines has risen to a level close to US$60/ton. However, due to the global spread of delta mutant strains, the current shipping is still not smooth. Therefore, after mid-to-late August, the TC price The rate of recovery has slowed down significantly. Domestically, with the rebound in processing fees and the continuous surge in sulfuric acid prices, the overhaul of refineries has been basically completed between July and August. However, with relatively considerable profits, the supply in September may increase slightly.
On the demand side, in August, social electricity consumption data continued to grow, but after the summer fades away, the electricity consumption level may decline. In the automotive sector, although the sales of new energy vehicles hit a new high, the production of traditional cars is still greatly affected due to chip issues, and the outlook for the real estate and infrastructure sectors is negative. Therefore, the expectations of these unfavorable factors may be at 9 It gradually appeared in the fourth quarter of January and then.
In terms of overseas demand, currently observing the LME inventory, we can find that its direction of change is obviously deviating from the domestic situation, showing that the delta mutant strain has a certain impact on overseas demand, and such an impact may still be difficult in a short period of time. eliminate.
To sum up, in September, the supply side may gradually become more affluent, while the demand side outlook is not very optimistic. However, due to the peak season demand that was suppressed due to high prices in the previous 2 quarters, the price may fall behind and will be stimulated again. Therefore, in general, it is recommended to sell high and buy low for copper prices in September.
